After a year of record gas revenues in 2006, Bolivia has achieved a fiscal surplus for the first time in three decades. In a period in which high oil prices have given Chavez more room to manoeuvre to shift its policy towards nationalisation and authoritarianism (see recent LACG Blog), there is the suspicion that windfall revenues may allow the Morales administration to take the same turn in Bolivia.

 

A new ODI Opinion argues that this is unlikely to be the case and that Evo Morales is actually departing from Chavez-type policy-making, acting more pragmatically and to some ...   more »

In last week’s blog, I discussed the collapse the Doha round of trade talks and Brazil’s leading role in these negotiations. This week's blog looks at progress on other free trade agreements in Latin America and asks, who really stands to benefit from trade liberalization? FTAA, bilateral FTAs and regional integration Doha is not the only recent example of trade talks collapsing after failed negotiations. In 2005, the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) floundered over similar issues to Doha: the US was seeking to expand trade in services and increase intellectual property rights, while Latin American countries pushed for an end to agricultural subsidies and freer trade in agricultural goods. Again, Brazil’s role in negotiations was crucial and it’s opposition at the Mar de Plata Summit in January 2005 played a large part in blocking a deal. There is some speculation that reaching a last-minute agreement over the Doha round could pave the way for a revival of the FTAA, but the terms of any negotiations would most likely be very different...   more »

With collapse of the Doha round, the cancellation of FTAA and the uneven progress on a number of bilateral and regional agreements, the issue of trade in Latin America is hanging in the balance. The future depends partly on the success or failure of last-ditch attempts to revive the Doha round currently being made by Brazil, the US and the EU and several other large developing countries. However, even in the unlikely event of an agreement being reached before July, the progress and nature of free trade agreements (FTAs) in Latin America remains uncertain. Not only is the multilateral trading system in a fragile state, but opposition to FTAs from social movements across the region remains widespread. One thing that does seem fairly certain is that Brazil – a key player in the Doha negotiations - will continue to have a leading role in future trade negotiations in Latin America...   more »

The announcement last week that Hugo Chavez planned to nationalise telecom and energy companies shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise to those who have been observing the trends in the South American economy...   more »